Thursday 18 November 2010

Euromillions - is it totally random?

Mostly everybody that plays this kind of game would say yes it is completely random and, of course, there is no chance to predict what numbers are coming up next time. I may point out that this is only partially true.. In fact it is not totally random although (and unfortunately) it is still pretty impossible to predict the numbers.  However, it is possible to group numbers by sets of odds based in the history of the game.
But.. why is it not totally random?
well.. it appears that at least in gambling nothing can be totally random, according to Persi_Diaconis a great specialist the matter of statistics, shuffling and randomness with particular attention to gambling applications, these kind of games where you have a set of balls in a tumbling machine or cards in a deck, there is always a limit to the randomness of the thing. So lets think how this makes very much sense..
The balls that enter the tumbling machine during the Euromillions draw do not enter it all at the same time. The same applies to the exit. On top of that the first ball to come out influences the second and so on. Also, the balls do not all have the same distance from the exit, and that also influences the results! It is virtually impossible to make it totally random, we also talk about 50 balls. And probably in every draw there are differences of milliseconds from the time the balls go in and each ball comes out, and that too also influences the result...
So all these differences and perhaps a few more together restrain the randomness of the game and make it more predictable than one would probably think! that is confirmed by looking into the statistics and the history of Euromillions by visiting this web site for example http://www.lotterypowerpicks.com/em_hotcold.htm Then you will see what I mean.. There are numbers that have almost twice more chance of being drawn  than others!! So think twice before playing. Indeed we can't predict the numbers but by choosing among a smaller set of numbers, therefore the ones that have the higher odds, there is an increasing probability of wining the the game! And this same strategy applies to pretty much all these kind of games!

Now good luck and fingers crossed ;)

2 comments:

Unknown said...

it seems odd that euromillions uses one particular machine and one set of balls for all the draws in that calendar month, uk lotto chooses at random a machine and balls before each and every draw. i contacted euromillions about this and was asked why do i want to know? and what difference i thought it would make to choose machines for individual draws.according to euro millions customer services, all machines and balls are identical in mass and weight etc, so what difference would it make! the question then has to be why does lottery regulations insist that they pocess several machines and ball sets? i agree-- random it is not.

lagent said...

Yeah for me Euromillions is a random game..